From Dr Clare Craig of HART, in her post ‘things Tim Harford forgot to mention in More or Less this week’…. And I used to really like that programme ☹
“PHE data shows that vaccinated 40-80 year olds are MORE likely to be infected than unvaccinated”
‘When different data points are telling opposite stories it is worth taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture. If, as we find using the ONS denominator, 94% of the over 40 year old adult population has been vaccinated with vaccines that prevent around 50% of positive test results, over 90% of hospitalisations in most age groups and over 80% of deaths in most age groups, why would the hospitalisation and death rate be 4 times worse this year than last? And why does Israel have its highest ever number of cases and longest lasting wave?
Although these vaccines do reduce hospitalisations and deaths, if they have little or no impact on the number of infections then vaccine passports and vaccinating children will have no benefit.
Of course, the thing that Dr Claire Craig seems to forget to mention is that in the included graphs the Vaccinated are still counted as ‘unvaccinated’ after their first jab and within two weeks of their second jab. Given that most deaths are occurring within the first two weeks of a jab I would say that is significantly skewing the data.