Theoretical Population Benefit Claim Found Invalid

By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH

The COVID-19 vaccines have failed to stop the infection, do not prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among fully vaccinated individuals, and have not been shown to reduce hospitalization or death in prospective, randomized, double blind placebo-controlled trials. The consent form for COVID-19 vaccines indicates the only benefit occurred in the past with previous strains. As an epidemiologist, I was shocked when Watson et al, made the claim that vaccination helped prevent 14-21 million deaths in 2021. How can reviewers and editors allow an author group to make such a claim when no mortality benefit is granted by the US FDA who regulates the language of the consent form?

Watson relied on a the Epidemiological SEIR (Susceptible → Exposed → Infectious → Recovered) model previously referred to as “the science”, by many government leaders, such as the former German chancellor Angela Merkel. In a analysis by Klement and Walach, the SEIR model was found to be invalid because Watson assumed the vaccine would prevent infection and therefore in some individuals, COVID-19 would not occur and thus the progression to death would be avoided. This is not realistic.

We now know in most countries the vast majority have had the infection one or multiple times (eg Klaassen et al, 94% of Americans are now recovered from the illness). Randomized trials by Pfizer, Moderna, Janssen, AstraZeneca, Novavax, and the killed virus vaccines all failed to show that vaccination prevents infection and thus reduces death during the trial observation period. It is not realistic to ignore the impact of natural immunity, early therapeutics, improvements in in-hospital care, and the clear evidence for recurrent infections. Thus “critical realism” destroys the simple SEIR model used by Watson. I agree with Klement and Walach; the SEIR model is invalid and Watson et al have falsely concluded there was a population mortality benefit with mass indiscriminate vaccination. The preponderance of evidence is that the effect is in the opposite direction with more infections, COVID-19 deaths, vaccine injuries, disabilities, and fatal syndromes with the vaccination campaign.

Watson OJ, Barnsley G, Toor J, Hogan AB, Winskill P, Ghani AC. Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2022 Sep;22(9):1293-1302. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00320-6. Epub 2022 Jun 23. PMID: 35753318; PMCID: PMC9225255.

Klement RJ, Walach H. SEIR models in the light of Critical Realism – a critique of exaggerated claims about the effectiveness of Covid 19 vaccinations February 2023Futures DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2023.103119

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