Birth Rate Declines are Real, but May be Temporary After All

I realize that my substack is full of bad news. That is not intentional and is because the important newsworthy stuff that I found, was of negative and gloomy nature. I was searching for something uplifting and finally found an interesting good trend.

Remember my series of posts about alarming fertility declines in Germany, California, Taiwan, Hungary, and Sweden? The most important of these posts was the article about Hungary, because it included county-by-county analysis that showed relationship of birth rate declines and vaccination rates as of 9 months prior.

Tony Woody @TonyWoody6Hungary: Highest Vaccinated Counties Have Worst Birth Rate Drops!Budapest is the new Taiwan — Birth Rate Drop of -22.2%!igorchudov.substack.comJuly 28th 2022

I said, in the Hungary article, that at the time it was written, there was no telling if the fertility declines were permanent, or temporary, or a bit of both. We know that vaccination causes declining sperm counts and motility and messes up women’s periods.

These declines were quite concerning and I had my own, very personal, reasons to worry about them, as an aspiring grandfather. I am sure that many of my readers shared similar worry.

Since that article, some time has passed and many more updates to birth rates were provided by many locales. And I have some good news: fertility declines are real, however, they are more likely to be temporary than permanent. (and likely are a mix of both)

The most fitting explanation is that vaccine shots prevent conception, or cause early miscarriages that look like a heavy delayed period, affecting males, females, or both, and the effect of vaccination on fertility lasts 2-3 months.

This is a very important call, obviously, and I wanted to share some data with you to show you why I think so.

How Would Permanent Fertility Declines Look?

If vaccination led to permanent fertility impairment in vaccinated people, then birth rate declines (comparing months, or quarters to the same periods 12 months prior) would deepen inexorably, in accordance with how many people were vaccinated 9 months ago. Declines would look like this:

However, fertility declines do NOT look like this. Generalizing many locations, they look like this:

Take a look at the data from Hungary, which just published its Q2 data:

You can see that after dropping by 12% in Q1 2022 (compared to Q1 2021), birth rate in Hungary picked back up and in Q2 2022 it even increased by 1%, when compared with Q2 2021. (the most vaccinated region “Budapest” still showed a 11% decline in births in Q2)

This is perfectly consistent with my hypothesis that vaccination causes a temporary decline in fertility. Take a look at Hungary’s vaccination progress (period 9 months before Q2 2022 is circled):

You can see that unlike in the previous quarter, young Hungarians almost stopped vaccinating in Q3 2021 (nine months before Q2 2022). No vaccinations — no birth rate declines! That passes for good news nowadays.

Let me mention several other locales that provided updates and they all go along similar lines:

Sweden posted May results. It shows significant declines, but they are NOT deepening and births in May 2022 declined only by 7.3% compared to May 2021:

Shown for every month, declines look like this and also seem to follow the “temporary” pattern:

The May 2021 birth rate drop bar shows a significant, but smaller 7.3% drop, consistent with Sweden’s continued, but somewhat slowed down vaccination of young people in Sep 2021 — 9 months before May 2022:

North Dakota, a much smaller place than Germany or Sweden, also has new data out. It looks noisier but also does NOT show a permanent decline:

I will keep an eye on ND to see if it publishes significant updates, as May looks slightly funny, but unless I hear something I presume the above data to be correct.


For the most part, boosters were given to young people after the periods that we are discussing. They are likely to add negative pressure to birth rates. I will watch this topic very closely.

The Bottom Line

Those of us who are worried about fertility and COVID vaccination, were worried for a reason. Covid vaccine does seem to affect fertility negatively. However, the effect is likely largely temporary in nature. Just do NOT take another dose, please!

Time will tell if I am right. My job is to inform you to the best of my ability.

I understand that I have a mix of subscribers: some people probably expect endless doom and gloom on the vaccine front, some hope for a light at the end of tunnel, etc. I would suppose that while some people would be disappointed that the worst predictions are NOT coming true, some, like me, would feel some relief. However, we all should appreciate how much we were lied to by our “health authorities” about the effect of vaccination on pregnancies.

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