The Doherty modelling report, prepared for the Australian National Cabinet on July 30th 2021, has been used as the grounds for the road map out of the pandemic, paving the way for Australian political leaders to justify rolling lockdowns and restrictions as well as drive an 80% vaccination target for our return to “normality. However, our analysis has shown that science was lacking according to our standards of modelling. This report is not about pro or anti vaccination. It is just another example of how bad the science applied to the pandemic is, begging the question, should we not re-examine the science using real-world experts instead of academia based experts. We need a new approach, and better science.”
There are many fundamental sources of error attached to the Doherty modelling report.
- Reliance on unrealistic assumptions
- Using model input from studies in countries, mainly the UK, which are NOT representative of Australia.
- Failure to incorporate variability
- Reliance on input from studies which themselves were based on models
- Seemingly incorporating data from the Wuhan virus when the study was about the Delta variant
- An unrealistic assumption that the delta variant will be the dominant variant by the time the vaccination target is reached. This problem was acknowledged, but forgotten was that the model is based on a variant that most likely will no longer be around in the near future
- Failure to incorporate real-world facts
- Failure to demonstrate accuracy
It is worth noting that the Doherty Modelling report states that vaccinating children will have minimum impact on reducing transmission potential of Covid-19. SO WHY VACCINATE CHILDREN? Children also have a low risk of infection.